Infrastructure adaptation scenarios: technical report

Developing infrastructure adaptation scenarios are essential for cities wishing to leapfrog to a WSC. This research drew on the WSC index baseline assessment for Bogor, described challenges and proposed opportunities for infrastructure adaptation scenarios. Many of these challenges and opportunities are common throughout Indonesia and may provide a frame of reference for future case studies. This particular research on infrastructure adaptation scenarios aims to aid in providing high-level recommendations for a leapfrogging strategy.

The research highlighted that the primary challenge Bogor must overcome to leapfrog to a WSC is managing water with the ‘business as usual’ mindset. The compounding effects of population growth and climate change place increasing stresses on current practices and highlight the need for new solutions. By using innovative, cost effective and robust solutions, it is possible to turn many of the challenges identified into opportunities.

Used effectively, modelling approaches can drive a deeper understanding of the connection between the water system, land use, urban design and technology, especially when founded in quality data and modelling. Furthermore, our research found that involving stakeholders early in the modelling process can improve the quality of options developed, increase water literacy, and significantly influence the success of water resource management projects.

Identified opportunities

Through workshops and studies in Bogor, the research identified that the Bogor community presented the biggest opportunity and challenges in implementing leapfrogging strategy from an infrastructure adaptation perspective. Challenges and opportunities include: ensuring good water-sensitive governance; increasing community capital; achieving equity of essential services; improving productivity and resource efficiency; improving ecological health; ensuring quality urban space; promoting adaptive infrastructure; and turning challenges into opportunities.

Establishing robust data platforms

Throughout Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) is responsible for the collection, quality control and storage of meteorological and climatological data. Local government agencies and research bodies also collect and hold localised data sets. For Greater Bogor, a coordinated approach to data collection, quality control, interpretation, storage and dissemination will better inform water policy, city development and infrastructure design, and is critical for Bogor’s transition to a WSC.

Data-driven improvements in water literacy and community capital

Water literacy is the measure by which the community, water professionals and government stakeholders understand the connections between water, climate change, population growth and other water related issues. Access to relevant data helps stakeholders make informed decisions on a variety of issues, from preparedness for severe weather conditions to sanitation issues..

Modelling performance of green infrastructure interventions

To design infrastructure options that are resilient under various climate change and urbanisation scenarios, opportunities exist for Bogor to promote adaptive water-sensitive infrastructure by modelling numerous uncertain scenarios and testing possible adaptation pathways where integrated multi-purpose infrastructure elements are installed.

To develop urban designs and recommendations for the selected case study sites our researchers applied a water balance model to evaluate the water cycle at each site and quantify the current demand for drinking water and sanitation, incorporating population growth and rain tank interventions.

For example, assuming an increase in rainfall of 25 per cent and city population more than doubling from 12,258 in 2018 to 26,631 in 2045, water balance modelling of Cibinong Situ Front City found that retrofitting each residential building with small 400-litre rainwater tanks (which would collect enough rainwater for flushing toilets for 75 per cent of the year) could reduce household imported water demands by 35 per cent.

Green infrastructure interventions such as rain tanks, wetlands and retention ponds can also be used to offset the increase in impervious surfaces and adapt to changing runoff regimes. Our modelling research demonstrated that flood waters could be mitigated through the implementation of green infrastructure technologies and proper catchment management strategies.

The research team also developed a tool called ‘Green Infrastructure Tool Based on Location Analysis’, which analyses several variables to determine the suitable placement of green infrastructure within a catchment.

Scenario modelling to inform city development, planning and design

Modelling numerous adaptation pathways under a variety of climate change, population growth and urbanisation scenarios allows urban planners to develop contingency plans for an uncertain future and advise policymakers on how to regulate new development to ensure a water sensitive approach is applied. Modelling can also be used to assess the security of safe water supplies given a variety of supply and demand scenarios. Including stakeholder input in planning, modelling and design processes increases water literacy and the community’s all-important connection with water.

To assess and understand the impact of land use on the water system, our research tailored the DAnCE4Water model to the context of Bogor. Based on open data and various tools, DAnCE4Water enables stakeholders to assess the impact of a range of urban planning decisions on the urban water system and identifies potential adaptation options.


Technical reports