Indonesian energy technology and resource assessments

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This project aimed to develop a means for Indonesian energy planners to understand the relative costs of electricity generation of 14 technologies in Indonesian conditions. Using best practice from the development of similar programs in Australia, it aimed to provide the foundation for an Indonesian energy technology assessment (IETA).

Electricity generation costs are changing rapidly, bringing serious repercussions for national energy policies. For a nation to develop efficient and effective energy policies, it must understand the specific factors affecting it. Generation costs will vary depending on a country’s labour market, technical, geographical and climatic conditions, along with its domestic policy imperatives. Energy policies in one country cannot be developed based on the generation cost assumptions of other countries. 

Over coming decades, the Indonesian electricity sector will need to adjust to unprecedented changes in the relative cost of generation technologies, arising from innovation, movements in fuel prices and adoption of climate change policies. This project equips policymakers, investors, researchers and developers with the information necessary to decide on the optimum mix of technologies for providing sustainable, reliable and affordable electricity to millions of Indonesian customers.

The project focused on the application of the Australia energy technology assessment (AETA) methodology in Indonesia, using Indonesian specific costs and conditions. The objective was to develop an IETA and apply it to a range of technologies agreed with the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The further, interrelated objective of the project was to review existing technology assessment methodology, develop enhanced approaches and trial them in application to Indonesian electricity market.

The IETA provides the best available and most up-to-date cost estimates for 14 electricity generation technologies under Indonesian, specifically Jakarta regional, conditions. It allows allows for cross-technology and over-time comparisons. The cost estimates for each of the 14 selected technologies were generated on a ‘bottom up’ approach that accounted for the component costs, which determine the overall long-run marginal cost of electricity generation. The methods used to build up the cost estimates were applied consistently across all technologies and all key assumptions fully detailed. IETA parameters and costs will be invaluable to energy companies, regulators and operators who need detailed cost comparisons across energy technologies for planning purposes.

Following the Australian model, IETA has been developed in consultation with Indonesian experts and using Indonesian technology input cost studies, especially for the selected values of fuels prices, performance parameters and interest rates. IETA also gained valuable input from the Indonesian Ministry of Resources.

The IETA 2017 provides many important insights, including the finding that Indonesia’s electricity generation mix in 2050 is likely to be very different to its current state. The key finding is that the costs of renewable technologies will drop rapidly as a result of a rapid increase in global production and technical developments. If planners and investors in the electricity sector are to effectively manage and adapt to this energy transformation, up-to-date and rigorous estimates of the cost of various electricity generation technologies will be required.

People

Outputs

Publications

  • Modelling and Optimisation of a solar PV household with battery storage, R. Gawler, A. Liebman, Technical report.
  • Modelling and Optimisation of a solar PV household with battery storage R. Gawler, A. Liebman to be submitted to Applied Energy journal, Elsevier
  • Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity”, Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan; Liebman, Ariel; Applied Energy, 205, 654-669, 2017, Elsevier
  • Transdisciplinary Research Methods in Community Energy Development and Governance in Indonesia: Insights for Sustainability Science’ (with S Thomas et al.) Energy Research & Social Science (July 2018) 
  • Social Approaches to Energy Transition Cases in rural Italy, Indonesia and Australia: Iterative Methodologies and Participatory Epistemologies’ (with M Sarrica et al.) Energy Research & Social Science (July 2018)
  • Landscape-Lifescape: A Context and Risk Analysis for Nine Districts in Lombok, South Sulawesi and Sumba Island (with P Adams & G Langford). Green Prosperity Project (2017)
  • Notes on the Anthropology of Electricity in Context of Remote-area Electrification Projects in Indonesia and Other Countries (W P Semedi & A Liebman), Proceeding of the Sixth International Symposium of Jurnal Antropologi Indonesia (2016)
  • Landscape – Lifescape: a context and risk analysis for nine districts in Lombok, South Sulawesi and Sumba Island, Liebman et al report 
    • “Regulatory and policy context for decentralised electrification and microgrid development in Indonesia” (Prest ANU, Wibisana UI, Widnyana ANU, Susanto), Asia Pacific Journal of Environmental Law, forthcoming.
    • “Indonesia’s Solar Feed-in Tariff Law: Will it Break Through the Barriers? Critical analysis of current regulatory frameworks to encourage investment in solar PV in Indonesia” James Prest, Jinnie Widnyana, Andri Wibisana. Transnational Environmental Law, forthcoming.
    • “Renewable energy in Indonesia: A Review of Law and Policy: Context and Challenges”, Journal of World Energy Law and Business, Prest Draft 

Conference presentations

  • Regulatory and policy transformation for microgrid enablement, “Meningkatkan hukum, regulasi dan kebijakan untuk mengaktifkan dan memfasilitasi microgrids energi terbarukan” Australia Indonesia Centre Energy Cluster Workshop, Australia Indonesia Centre Summit, Presentation at Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, 24 August 2016.
  • “What’s Blocking Solar PV in Indonesia? Will the new FIT law work?” Australian Photovoltaic Institute 2016 Asia-Pacific Solar Research Conference, ANU 30 November 2016. 
  • “Critical analysis of current regulatory frameworks to encourage investment in solar PV in Indonesia”, Innovations Seminar Series, School of Regulation and Global Governance (Regnet), ANU, 11 April 2017
  • “Law and Policy to Encourage Renewable Energy Microgrids in Indonesia“, International Tropical Renewable Energy Conference, University of Indonesia, 23 November 2017.
  • Energy Technology Assessment to enable uptake of renewables, I. Skryabin presentation at the Asia Clean Energy Forum, ADB, The Philippines, Manila, 2017

Related projects

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